Our work

Follow the money past the budget line.

Others measure what states promise to spend on agriculture. ABX measures what they actually spend, what it buys, and how each state compares with its peers.

The four-value chain

One budget line, four numbers, and a field visit

Most commentary reports one number: the allocation. ABX records four for every state, year and line, then checks a sample on the ground.

ABX counts agriculture by function, not by ministry, following the international COFOG standard used for CAADP reporting. Irrigation, rural roads, input agencies and counterpart funds for donor programmes often sit outside the Ministry of Agriculture, so reading the ministry line alone undercounts.

The leak map

Where agriculture money is lost, who controls it, and what to ask

Tap each stage. Every leak has a responsible office, a document that should reveal it, and a question citizens and lawmakers can put to government.

How change happens

Three kinds of pressure, because one is not enough

Rankings move the states that already care about their reputation. ABX also works through oversight institutions and through the farmers who bear the cost.

Competitive

Governors and commissioners

An annual index and zonal league tables, so states compete on delivery as a mark of good governance.

Institutional

Houses of Assembly and Auditors-General

Evidence packs delivered before each state's budget defence, so spending becomes a standing oversight question.

Constituency

Farmers, cooperatives and media

Scorecards in English and Hausa, radio, and a role in verification, so farmers can notice and contest non-delivery themselves.

Timing is the mechanism. Evidence delivered six weeks before a budget defence is worth more than the same evidence at a launch event. ABX's publication calendar follows each state's budget calendar. See the budget calendar.

Method

How a number earns a place on this site

The ABX Methodology Paper is published before any ranking and is open for peer review. Anyone should be able to reproduce an ABX figure from the same public documents.

1

Capture

Record the document, page, and exact words or row. Nothing typed from memory.

2

Classify

Mark each figure reported or derived, and grade each state-year from A (audited) to E (unavailable).

3

Derive

Show the formula and inputs for every computed figure. Missing data is named, never estimated.

4

Reply

Send findings to each state 21 days before publishing. Publish the reply, or the silence.

The ABX Budget Execution Index

Five components, scored against fixed standards

Weights are a judgement, so ABX publishes how rankings move when they change. Move the sliders to see for yourself.

ComponentIndicatorWeightWhy it matters
Allocation adequacyShare of the revised budget going to agriculture20%A state should not get credit for money it cut during the year
Release disciplineCapital release rate25%Withheld releases are the failure most directly in government's control
Capital executionCapital spent ÷ revised capital budget25%The core measure of whether investment happened
DisclosureTimeliness and detail of quarterly reports15%Rewards states that make themselves measurable
Verified deliveryShare of sampled projects passing all four field tests15%Separates spending from delivery

Also reported, not scored: the Agriculture Expenditure Share (the Kampala test), budget credibility deviation, counterpart compliance, and real spending per farming household. Request the Methodology Paper.

Reported

Where did Kebbi's ₦100 go?
promisedspentnot spentcutunknown
Kebbi State, 2025